There have been violent protests in Kazakhstan during the early days of 2022. As of January 9, 169 people lost their lives while 2000 were injured and 5 thousand people were detained. Protesters stormed Almaty’s government buildings, looted numerous shops, and set roughly ten buildings and 30 vehicles on fire. Noise from the explosions and gunfire was heard for several days. Many flights were canceled since protesters occupied the airport. Authorities retook the airport the same night. In some cities, Nazarbayev’s statue was demolished.
Protests over the doubled price of liquefied gas soon escalated into unrest across the country. President Tokayev dismantled his government, removed Nursultan Nazarbayev from the Security Council, and took all power to himself.
Tokayev gave the order to shoot to kill without warning against the resisting protesters, declaring that they would take “serious action against terrorists, conspirators, and criminals who had planned and financed the uprising in advance.” He also requested help from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) as Kazakhstan is a member state. Upon this request, more than 3,000 peacekeepers from Russia, Armenia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan arrived in Kazakhstan.
The Internet was limited in the country. The president declared a state of emergency across the country until January 19, with a curfew between 23:00 and 07:00, banning public events, and restricting the movement of people and vehicles.
Nazarbayev’s confidant, former Prime Minister Karim Masimov, has been fired from his post as head of the National Security Committee (NSC) and was arrested on suspicion of treason. Nazarbayev’s nephew, Samat Abish, and his brother, the oligarch Kairat Satybaldy, were also arrested. An expert on Central Asia, Arkady Dubnov, said that Elbasy (legally given title meaning the national leader) Nazarbaev himself is in China.
The main reason for the unrest
Although President Nazarbaev has managed to develop his country’s economy significantly during his 30-year rule, he also made the Kazakh state an authoritarian monarchy with rampant corruption. As the “royal” family, relatives, and accomplices increased their incomes astronomically, the ordinary people became impoverished. Nazarbayev’s daughter Dinara Kulibaeva and son-in-law Timur Kulibaev are ranked No. 2 and No. 3 on Forbes’ list of Kazakhstan’s wealthiest people in 2021, with a fortune of 2.9 billion dollars each. БАСЕ agency has reported that Vladimir Kim, who ranked No. 1 on the list with his wealth of 4.1 billion dollars, is the ‘wallet’ of the Nazarbaev family and that he has even gifted Elbasy the most expensive house in London. Kazakh authorities own properties worth 520 million pounds in London alone, of which houses and apartments worth 330 million pounds belong to the Nazarbaev family, according to a report by Chatham House.
Kazakhstan, the world’s ninth-largest country with a population of almost 20 million, is the world’s largest producer of uranium, the second-largest miner of bitcoin, and the 11th largest producer of oil. Still, the distribution of the natural resources has been nothing but uneven. Despite a GDP per capita of 8,500 dollars, living standards for citizens and elites could not be farther from each other.
People lost their patience as widespread social inequality, increased prices, unemployment (especially among the youth in southern regions), social injustice, unequal access to education and health services – all got worse during the pandemic. Many people (Altynbek Sarsenbaev, Zamanbek Nurkadilov, and others) who criticized the government or the Nazarbaev family, were murdered. Islamic influence is heavier, and the state is increasingly intertwined with religion now.
Without Nazarbayev’s permission, there will be no big businesses running in the country, and no one will be appointed to a high position (Aidos Satykov). Former Prime Minister Akejan Kazhgeldin said that the military, police, law enforcement agencies, courts, and prosecutors have all served to protect the Nazarbayev family, not the country. Opposition leader and former minister Mukhtar Ablyazov said that in 2019 Nazarbayev handed over the presidency to Tokayev but did not give him any power. He made all the decisions behind the scenes, saying that Tokayev was mere “furniture.”
According to some political analysts, the 81-year-old Nazarbayev is old and ill, which makes it possible for a sudden transfer of power to Tokayev. This situation threatens “the family-run businesses and oligarchic corporations”. Therefore, trained mobs infiltrated the scene and created chaos, quickly turning the riot into a political uprising and killing many police officers. Tokayev said yesterday that this was a planned coup attempt.
As of January 10, all political power in Kazakhstan is de facto concentrated in the hands of President Tokayev. But will he be able to change the political regime, hold fair elections, and address social and economic problems that society demands? When will this country have parliamentary governance and an impartial judiciary? Was there really outside influence? We Mongolians can only hope that the brotherly people of Kazakhstan will restore order in a short period.
Lessons for Mongolia
What is happening in Kazakhstan bears few messages of caution for Mongolia. Mongolians need to ask themselves those questions and answer them.
Although Mongolia is relatively open in terms of democracy, human rights, and freedoms, and has many years of experience in parliamentary governance, we need to remind the government and the society that there are several similar issues that could lead to instability, if we do not act urgently. Those issues include:
One, political stability is crucial. It can be ensured through political balance only, which means there needs to be a system in place to keep the power balance between the ruling party and the opposition.
In the current context, where all political power is concentrated in one party, it is crucial for the ruling MPP to be realistic, pragmatic, open, and critical within itself. A robust political opposition is needed. Citizens should demand opposition, especially the Democratic Party – the historic opposition currently in disarray, which is still present in all soums, to unite and concentrate. The government needs to support the process as well.
Two, the Mongolian government needs to win the battle against corruption and prosecute those who embezzled public property. Unfortunately, instances where the criminals go unpunished, running out time for the statute of limitations, or the case itself went out of public attention (forgotten), are becoming more common.
The hidden and legitimate incomes of the government officials keep growing while the livelihood and incomes of the citizens decline continuously, which needs to be addressed. The authorities keep hiding many activities under the name of state secrets. Some examples include the railway projects and the purchase of Erdenet’s 49% stake using public funds. The funding of political parties and elections remain non-transparent. There should be no statute of limitations for cases of corruption.
Three, social justice cannot be achieved without holding judges and prosecutors accountable at all levels, keeping the judiciary independent, and making sure they serve the people, not the authorities. The Ministry of Justice should be called with its literal English meaning instead of the Mongolian name (The Ministry of Legalities) so that every employee of the Ministry and all its agencies are reminded of their primary responsibilities daily.
Four, there would not be an accumulation of negative energy in the society if human rights and the freedom of assembly were ensured and protected to increase government and personal responsibilities and enable the people to monitor their government. The government stepping down for a minor excuse is an action with no social responsibility.
Five, Fair and even distribution of natural resources, as well as investments in labor productivity and competitiveness
Six, there is a need to prevent the overexpansion of social welfare, encourage labor, establish a free competition to increase wages, allow the government to only enter businesses that the private sector cannot do, and liberalize prices gradually.
Once these steps are implemented, political stability will be in place, and Mongolians will be able to assemble and collaborate to improve their livelihoods.
2022.01.12
Trans. by Riya.T and Munkh-Erdene.D