Fifteen years have passed since Mongolia joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (“SCO”) as an observer state. Moreover, a while ago our two neighbors that founded the SCO and exert great influence on its decision-making suggested Mongolia to join the SCO as a full-fledged member. The government of Mongolia begun expressing their interest in acceding to the SCO. Nevertheless, in a democratic country, a final decision on the accession to the SCO cannot be made without public support. In case the government makes a decision despite public disapproval, citizens will use the upcoming election to overthrow the government. Hereupon, it is impossible for the government, which is elected for a short-term, to take decisive actions until both citizens and civil society fully understand not only the consequences of joining the SCO but the challenges, and the underlying reasons for the pressing need to commit to a full membership. Mongolia signed a permanent treaty on a comprehensive strategic partnership with both our neighbors but in spite of that, no single large-scale project was implemented for over 10 years. Thus, people are left baffled, doubtful, and above all: they are losing trust in bilateral or trilateral cooperations.
Mongolia is a large country with a small population and located between the world’s two powerful countries, China and Russia. For Mongolia, economic security is of utmost importance. Given that the government is failing to carry out a successful project pursuant to the bilateral or trilateral treaties, it is increasingly difficult to imagine any outcome from multilateral relations, or the accession to any regional organization.
The SCO expansion and challenges
The SCO was founded in response to the urgency to “strengthening mutual trust in the military sphere in the border area” among newly established Central Asian countries due to the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. The SCO became the largest regional organization that holds an annual summit of eighteen heads of states. Currently, eight countries enjoy a full member status, four retain observer status, and six have a dialogue partner status. Its initial goal was to ensure the regional security of Euro-Asia, particularly to combat terrorism, separatism, and extremism. Currently, the SCO is aiming to take the multilateral economic cooperation to the next level.
In terms of economic cooperation, no substantial actions were taken except for China’s initiative to provide loans independently through the Bank of China under the “One Road and One Belt” initiative. Furthermore, the intelligence information of the Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (“RATS”), which aimed to combat three evils of terrorism, separatism, and extremism, is not fully accessible. The member states have not even agreed on the definition of terrorism. Furthermore, the gap between definitions is widening with India and Pakistan’s accession to the SCO. Especially, as India abolished the autonomous status of the Jammu-Kashmir, a state in India with a Muslim-majority population and is taking control through its military power.
Traditionally, India has a military alliance with Russia and purchased several S-400 air defense missiles from Russia despite the US opposition. It is evident that in India, the majority of military weapons are Russian-made. In addition, six nuclear power plants that were built by Russia are officially about to provide energy in India and the contract for the building of to six more nuclear plants was recently signed off between these two countries in Vladivostok, Russia.
China and Pakistan also share close military relations. In 1947, China had a border dispute with India and as a result, China obtained part of Kashmir, a disputed area, in 1962. It is believed that Russia and China supported India and Pakistan respectively and encouraged their simultaneous accession to the SCO.
The Indian economy is growing seven percent annually but is facing an energy shortage. Further, India has the intention to join the Eurasian Economic Union. Hence, India has a practical reason to join the SCO due to the fact that it may rely on the Central Asian or Russian natural gas and oil deposits. Indeed, China has a long-lasting rivalry with India. In the case in point, India does not take China’s “One Road and One Belt” initiative as an open project but as China’s economic expansionary policy. Therefore, India is not in favor of discussing this project at the SCO meetings. India bears an obligation to keep the maritime transportation secure under the quadrilateral treaty with the US, Australia, and Japan. These countries are opposing the Chinese military base in the Pacific islands which is subject to territorial dispute. Atul Bhardwaj, a research fellow, described that “India’s one leg is on the US boat and the other leg on the Chinese boat.” However, those two boats are drifting apart instead of coming closer. This is apparent from the ongoing China-US trade and tech war for obtaining geopolitical dominance.
The relations with the US, the European countries, and the economic sanctions are placing immense pressure on the Russian economy which is hugely dependent on oil prices. As a result, the Russian ruble is facing instability which in turn is negatively affecting the living standards of citizens.
Will Mongolia change its views?
The SCO is an organization conjointly headed by China and Russia. We need to keep an eye on how the situation might change following the accession of the largest democratic country with strong military power, India. It is worthy of attention to observe how the SCO members will receive India’s request to add English to the list of official languages along with Chinese and Russian. It might become one of the factors for Afghanistan and Iran to join the SCO as a full member and to actively involve. If, in fact, Iran accedes then the SCO will certainly become the world’s largest political organization under the close collaboration of Russia, China, India, and Iran.
In the multipolar world, a wealthy country with a powerful economy and military needs to choose sides in a timely manner. In contrast, the Mongolian economy is relatively small, the politics are unstable, and as the government is frequently replaced the necessary conditions for making a long-term decision are not in place. Hence, for a small country like Mongolia, it is not an urgent matter to pick sides. Moreover, the Mongolian small private enterprises have not yet expanded to regional markets. Before reaching a decision on the accession to the SCO, discussions must be held on various levels and from different angles. Until then, Mongolia should make most of the bilateral and trilateral treaties by collaborating with the two neighbors in terms of economy, environment, and combating illegal drugs. Also, we need to seize all opportunities offered to the SCO observer states, to collaborate with the SCO in every available way, and to focus on educating the workforce.
2019.11.20
Trans. by Riya.T and Ariunzaya.M