[Observations on 2018 russian presidential election]
I was one of the international election observers in the Russian Presidential Election that took place on 18 March 2018. Vladimir Putin, who is from the United Russia party, was reelected for a consecutive term in office with 77 per cent of the vote. The Communist Party’s Paul Grudinin, who is often dubbed as the ‘strawberry millionaire’, received the second most votes (11 per cent) followed by Vladimir Zhirinovsky from the Liberal Democratic Party (5.7 per cent), Ksenia Sobchak from the Civic Initiative movement (1.7 per cent), Grigory Yavlinsky from the Yabloko Party (1 per cent), and the remaining three candidates, whose share of the vote did not reach one per cent. No-one doubted that Putin would win.
Russia is the largest country in the world by area and has 11 different time zones, meaning the sun never sets there. Their election turnout this time was 68 per cent. Fifty-six million of a total of 73 million voters supported Putin. The election results stood out because one candidate out of eight won nearly 80 per cent of all votes. Russia did not need to organize another round to elect its president like Mongolia did.
Almost 1,500 observers from 115 countries arrived in the country and observed the election process countrywide. I worked in central Saint Petersburg and eight constituencies in the suburb. At each constituency I first had my registration done, met with the person in charge, and proceeded to observing the process from a designated table taking photos. It was exactly how it is done in Mongolia. You would cast your vote at a local school, have your residential address registered, receive the ballot paper, register your vote behind curtains, and put the paper into a box. One constituency had 2,000 voters on average. Some constituencies had vote counting machines while those who did not had transparent, sealed boxes. The whole process of registering and counting votes was filmed. Some polling stations had free tea and biscuits, and played patriotic music. Young people who were casting their vote for the first time were given a gift. For example, a student who translated for us received a t-shirt.
Different takes on the election
Following the election results, the Russian media talked about how Russia has become stronger and how the people of Russia are showing more support for Putin. The coverage also suggested that Western sanctions actually helped Putin to achieve this margin of victory and so did the fact that 23 diplomats had been expelled from the UK due to allegations against Putin after a former Russian spy was poisoned along with his daughter in Salisbury, UK. Russia’s popular figures in culture, arts, science, and society have stated that there is no other world class leader like Putin today.
But, if you look at how the Western media covered the story, there was a stark difference. Reuters reported in its online video that the election turnout was high because people were required to cast their vote by their employers. The BBC said that Putin had two true competitors, one of which (Boris Nemtsov) was killed and the other (Alexei Navalny) was banned from running. The Washington Post said that Putin had held the office of either the President or the Prime Minister for 19 years since 1999, which makes the duration of his tenure as leader of the country longer than Brezhnev’s. Another six years would now make Putin the second longest-serving leader after Stalin who had 30 years’ rule. The Economist said that Russia has welcomed its first czar, Vladimir, after 100 years since the October Revolution.
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, a former Russian oligarch who was in the oil business and got out of jail after years of imprisonment, was interviewed by the BBC on 15 March. He said that less than 100 elites are controlling Russia today through Putin, so Putin would definitely be re-elected because there is no other choice.
A day before the election, the governments of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and the United States issued a joint statement condemning Russia for using a chemical weapon that was banned after World War II. Jens Stoltenberg, the Secretary General of NATO, said that the true culprit behind the Salisbury case was the Russian government. These big nations would not make such allegations without any grounds. It goes without saying that ordinary people like us would not be able to judge who is telling the truth, but time will tell. I am only reporting on what I read and heard.
Mongolia’s external environment
Starting from this month of this year, Mongolia’s external political and economic environment has become unique. Our neighbors in both the north and the south have legitimately decided that their respective leaders should rule the country for twenty years. To the west, there is another leader who has ruled his country for thirty years. What it means is that the state and government affairs of our neighboring countries are remaining stable because there is only one leader. In contrast, the average age of a Mongolian government has now become two years, and it does not look like it is going to increase in the near future. The new age requires our government policy to be stable, even if its leadership is not.
Our northern and southern neighbors are great powers. Now they are competing with the other great power, the United States. There is a funny saying that goes “– What is the most independent country in the world? – It is Mongolia. – Why? – Because no other country is dependent on them.” It may sound funny, but we need uphold this principle now.
Human rights, freedom, and democracy have already become our values. Therefore, we have no other choice but to protect our values and develop them. We have no choice but to refrain from judging what great powers are doing and keep on with our life. In other words, this means that Mongolia should never get in the middle of great powers, treat them equally from an appropriate distance, and not join in their unions or associations. Switzerland lived in the same way for 800 years and has become the wealthiest country in the world today.
It is viewed by many that the commercial sanctions that the West imposed on Russia after the Crimea annexation produced positive impacts on Russia’s domestic agricultural production and made the president stronger. Now potential sanctions are being discussed because of the use of chemical weapons, along with freezing the Nordic Stream 2 project to build a gas pipeline into Europe. The impact of such sanctions would be far greater on the Russian economy. Nearly 200 companies from different countries are working on this project. So the suspension of the project would result in Russia receiving reduced foreign currency revenue.
On the other hand, a 2018 Transparency International report predicts that Russia’s social care costs will increase as the monopolistic power of the Russian government grows and their corruption situation does not improve, preventing improvement in their economic competitiveness.
It is looking increasingly likely that the One Belt, One Road project initiated by our southern neighbor is going to be implemented and will result in speedy progress in building a road and rail corridor. Also, there is a stronger likelihood that the Kovykta natural gas project would be implemented. A historic opportunity is slowly coming together for Mongolia to connect her two big neighbors through financial services and infrastructure, especially by railway and by resolving the issue of different gauges.
2018.03.20
Saint Petersburg – Moscow – Ulaanbaatar